The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gambling (IBJR), which represents licensed betting operators, has challenged data from the Brazilian Supermarkets Association (ABRAS) suggesting that the country’s ban on betting has pushed up spending on food.
In a statement sent to media, the IBJR said the figures do not show that the ban caused the rise in supermarket sales. To make that link, it said, analysts would need to estimate how much consumption would have grown anyway, taking into account income, employment, prices and household finances.
The ban and the ABRAS data
Brazil banned fixed-odds betting and online casino through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026, published on 25 September. It prohibits operating, offering and advertising bets, required sites and apps to go offline from 6 October and ended existing authorisations 30 days after publication. The measure took effect immediately but needs approval from Congress to become permanent. Lotteries are not affected.
ABRAS has since reported higher food sales in the weeks after the ban, including national growth of 6.3% in the week of 12 to 18 October compared with a year earlier. It linked the trend to Central Bank data showing a drop in the volume of Pix instant payments after the measure took effect.
What the IBJR disputes
- Growth before the ban: the IBJR said the weekly ABRAS/NIQ monitor showed nominal sales up 7.9% between 14 and 20 September, before the MP, and up 7.4% between 5 and 11 October, compared with the same weeks of 2025.
- Earlier explanations: it noted that ABRAS’s own analysis of August linked higher consumption to better employment and income and lower food prices, with real household consumption up 2.71% in the year to date. Those factors pre-date the ban.
- Pix data: a fall in the number of Pix transfers does not show how much families stopped spending on betting, where that money went, or how much betting moved to illegal sites, the IBJR said.
Questioning the headline numbers
The IBJR also asked for the methodology behind two figures that have featured in the debate: R$143bn that betting is said to have taken from retail, and R$62.5bn said to have been drawn from household income.
It said the R$62.5bn figure is based on Pix transfers and does not separate licensed operators from illegal platforms, while the R$143bn figure is an estimate of sales that retailers say they lost. Neither, it said, reflects what bettors actually spent in the regulated market.
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By comparison, the IBJR cited Ministry of Finance data showing the regulated market generated about R$37bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR, stakes minus winnings paid) in 2025. With household consumption of about R$8.1tn that year, according to statistics agency IBGE, that GGR was equal to around 0.46% of consumption.
The ban follows a period of tighter rules for licensed operators, including advertising rules that were extended to agencies, influencers and affiliates in September.
