US prediction markets are set for the biggest night in their short history on 3 November, when Americans vote in the mid-term elections, but the places these operators can advertise are shrinking. That is the view of Peter Sengenberger, Managing Partner of Global TV Experts USA.
According to Sengenberger, traders had already put more than $220 million on congressional races by 30 September. That is more than double the $92 million traded across the entire 2024 congressional cycle, and one watchdog projects the total could reach $1.6 billion before this cycle ends.
Money traded on US congressional races
Prediction markets, US dollars, millions
View as table
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024 cycle (full) | 92 $m |
| 2026 cycle (to 30 Sept) | 220 $m |
Five states blocked on Google
Google now blocks prediction market ads in five US states. Each of them has challenged the operators in court or ordered them to stop:
- January
Nevada, from the launch of Google's policy
- June
Ohio
- July
Michigan and New York
- 7 October
Connecticut
Sengenberger said: “Google can switch off a state with a policy update, and it’s done it five times in just four months, which means that a growth strategy that depends on one platform’s legal comfort can go dark in a state overnight.”
He said Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval got operators into the ad auction, “but it hasn’t kept them there.”
Pressure on TV advertising
Television carries a similar risk. In September, Connecticut ordered nine prediction market platforms to stop offering sports contracts and subpoenaed 15 media organisations, including ESPN, NBC Connecticut and WFSB. None of the outlets is under investigation, but Sengenberger said that once a station’s legal team has seen a subpoena, the next prediction market ad booking “gets a much slower review.”
Michigan has also asked a judge to hold Kalshi in contempt over adverts that continued to reach residents of the state. Separately, the CFTC is reviewing “mention markets”, and Kalshi has withdrawn its sports versions.
What happens next
Sengenberger predicts that Google will block prediction market ads in at least three more states before the 2027 NFL season starts. In his view, regulatory standing has become a competitive advantage in marketing, and the operators still growing in 2027 “will have built a brand people search for by name, one strong enough to survive losing a channel.”
